From Mine to Market: Ghana Starts Domestic Gold Refining

February 13, 2026 | Fides Global Bullion Newsroom

Market Snapshot

• Gold: $5,015/oz | Silver: $61.40/oz

• Trend Diagnosis: Ghana’s record production underscores the country’s growing influence in global bullion supply, reinforcing structural supply fundamentals.

• Key Highlights:

  • Provisional data shows 6 million ounces of gold produced in 2025, a national record.

  • Strong output supports West Africa’s position as a key supplier, particularly to Asian and European refiners.

  • The increase may influence regional premiums, export flows, and global bullion inventories.

The Why

Ghana’s production surge reflects a combination of expanding mining capacity, improved operational efficiency, and sustained investment in exploration. This positions the country as a strategic contributor to global bullion supply, particularly for refined gold entering the formal market.

For traders, producers, and portfolio managers, higher output has liquidity implications: physical availability may compress premiums in the short term, but global demand for gold remains robust, supported by central bank accumulation, macro hedging, and inflation protection strategies.

What the Market Is Missing

• Markets may focus on headline production volumes without factoring in export refinement and domestic value capture.

• The timing of shipments and inventory deployment can create temporary dislocations in spot and futures pricing.

• Ghana’s structural contribution to global supply may moderate volatility and serve as a floor during stress periods.

Forward Outlook (Next 5–7 Days)

1. Scenario: Stable Export Flows

   • Condition: Refiners and banks efficiently manage shipments.

   • Impact: Minimal short-term price impact; global supply remains balanced.

2. Scenario: Logistics or Policy Disruptions

   • Condition: Export controls or infrastructure bottlenecks emerge.

   • Impact: Local premiums rise; volatility in regional markets may spike.

Cross-Market Signal

• Higher Ghanaian output may moderate global bullion spreads and influence Asian import pricing.

• Physical availability supports broader reserve-building strategies in emerging-market central banks.

Strategic Overlay

Missed Opportunities (Where Markets Are Complacent)

• Underestimating Ghana’s contribution to global supply stability.

• Ignoring how timing and logistics of exports affect spot and futures markets.

Strategic Implications (If Executed Well)

• Hedging: Adjust positions in response to regional supply shifts.

• Reserve Allocation: Recognize Ghana as a reliable source for near-term bullion accumulation.

• Portfolio Protection: Use knowledge of production trends to anticipate market liquidity and premiums.

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