Gold Bull Market Set to Continue, Scotiabank Highlights Key Indicators

February 18, 2026 | Fides Global Bullion Newsroom

Market Snapshot

• Gold: $5,170/oz | Silver: $62.90/oz

• Trend Diagnosis: Gold’s bull market remains structurally intact, with central bank accumulation, macro uncertainty, and supportive real rates providing continued upward pressure.

• Key Highlights:

  • Scotiabank analysis indicates strong technical and macro fundamentals underpinning gold’s continued advance.

  • Key drivers include persistent central bank purchases, subdued real yields, and global liquidity flows.

  • Retail and institutional positioning remains selectively cautious, creating potential tactical buying opportunities.

The Why

Gold’s structural bull market is being reinforced by long-term macro and monetary factors. Central banks are actively expanding reserves, while real interest rates remain historically low, supporting the opportunity cost argument for gold.

From a trading and investment perspective, the current environment balances tactical volatility with long-term accumulation trends, offering clear signals for portfolio protection, hedging, and strategic allocation.

What the Market Is Missing

• Some investors may focus on short-term pullbacks, overlooking macro drivers that sustain the bull trend.

• Asia-driven physical demand continues to anchor price floors, which markets often underestimate.

• Ignoring structural accumulation and liquidity trends could lead to missed medium-term positioning opportunities.

Forward Outlook (Next 5–7 Days)

1. Scenario: Structural Support Holds

   • Condition: Central bank buying continues and real rates stay low.

   • Impact: Gold remains on a steady upward trajectory; tactical dips present entry points.

2. Scenario: Policy or Macro Shocks

   • Condition: Inflation surprises or FX disruptions emerge.

   • Impact: Temporary volatility occurs; long-term bull trend remains intact if structural drivers persist.

Cross-Market Signal

• Gold gains correlate with FX stability, real yields, and global liquidity flows, providing early warning signals for portfolio hedging.

• Silver and other industrial metals may follow macro trends, but gold remains the anchor for strategic reserve and risk management decisions.

Strategic Overlay

Missed Opportunities (Where Markets Are Complacent)

• Viewing short-term volatility as a reversal rather than a normal retracement within a bull market.

• Overlooking Asia-driven demand and central bank accumulation that support medium-term structural upside.

Strategic Implications (If Executed Well)

• Hedging: Layer exposure on tactical pullbacks.

• Reserve Allocation: Integrate macro and structural signals into long-term positioning.

• Portfolio Protection: Use gold’s resilience to buffer against real-rate, FX, and equity market risks.

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