Gold Flows Slow During Lunar New Year, Exposing Asia-Centric Demand

February 18, 2026 | Fides Global Bullion Newsroom

Market Snapshot

• Gold: $5,155/oz | Silver: $62.75/oz

• Trend Diagnosis: Seasonal pause in Asian markets emphasizes the structural role of Eastern physical demandin global price discovery.

• Key Highlights:

  • Trading volumes declined during Lunar New Year celebrations, revealing the market’s heavy reliance on Asian flows.

  • Physical demand from China, India, and Southeast Asia remains the primary driver of premiums and short-term price support.

  • Western markets exhibited limited influence on price action, highlighting regional concentration risk.

The Why

Gold’s recent stability and gains are anchored in Asian physical buying, which sets both local premiums and global pricing benchmarks. Seasonal slowdowns, such as Lunar New Year, expose liquidity gaps and temporary pricing sensitivity.

For institutional investors and traders, this reinforces the need to monitor Asian flows, customs data, and regional premiums, particularly for timing tactical purchases or hedges. The lull provides a natural stress test of market dependence on Eastern demand.

What the Market Is Missing

• The temporary dip in liquidity may be misinterpreted as weak demand, when in reality, it is a seasonal artifact.

• Premium behavior and flow adjustments during these periods signal where structural support lies, providing early insight for near-term positioning.

• Ignoring Asia’s influence risks underestimating the sensitivity of global spreads and arbitrage windows.

Forward Outlook (Next 5–7 Days)

1. Scenario: Post-Holiday Demand Resumes

   • Condition: Asian markets return to full activity.

   • Impact: Premiums and spreads normalize; global liquidity strengthens.

2. Scenario: Supply or Import Disruptions

   • Condition: Delays in shipments or policy changes occur during holiday.

   • Impact: Temporary volatility; Asia-driven flows dictate short-term price behavior.

Cross-Market Signal

• Asian demand directly influences FX flows, shipping rates, and global bullion spreads.

• Temporary lulls provide a leading indicator for regional liquidity and potential arbitrage opportunities.

Strategic Overlay

Missed Opportunities (Where Markets Are Complacent)

• Failing to recognize Asian demand as the structural anchor for physical and paper markets.

• Overlooking how seasonal pauses reveal risk concentration and liquidity sensitivity.

Strategic Implications (If Executed Well)

• Hedging: Account for temporary low-liquidity periods when positioning futures or options.

• Reserve Allocation: Align acquisitions with resumption of Eastern demand flows.

• Portfolio Protection: Understand Asia-driven dependency to anticipate short-term volatility.

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