Gold Prices in India Retreat, Offering First Discounts in Almost a Month

February 13, 2026 | Fides Global Bullion Newsroom

Market Snapshot

• Gold: $5,095/oz | Silver: $62.35/oz

• Trend Diagnosis: The temporary discount in India reflects local supply-demand dynamics, not a structural shift in global bullion trends.

• Key Highlights:

  • Gold in India has traded below import parity premiums for the first time in nearly a month.

  • Easing premiums coincide with high domestic availability and moderation in retail demand post-festive buying season.

  • The discount is largely technical and short-term, with global macro drivers still supportive of price stability.

The Why

Indian gold markets are heavily influenced by import flows, customs duties, and seasonal demand patterns. The current discount signals temporary supply abundance, likely stemming from recent shipments and moderated festival-driven purchases.

For traders and institutional buyers, such moments offer tactical accumulation opportunities without signaling a broader structural correction. Gold’s role as a hedge against macro uncertainty, inflation, and currency risk remains intact.

What the Market Is Missing

• Markets may interpret the discount as a bearish signal, ignoring that local premiums often decouple from global prices.

• Temporary supply surpluses can create buying windows for investors seeking physical bullion, particularly for smaller units or retail channels.

• The Indian market’s behavior precedes regional demand shifts, providing early insight into broader Asia-driven flows.

Forward Outlook (Next 5–7 Days)

1. Scenario: Stable Import Flows Continue

   • Condition: Shipments arrive on schedule, demand remains moderate.

   • Impact: Discounts persist briefly; local prices may stabilize at or slightly below parity.

2. Scenario: Surge in Demand or Policy Change

   • Condition: Import delays, festive buying, or regulatory adjustments.

   • Impact: Discounts tighten, premiums recover, and spreads normalize.

Cross-Market Signal

• Local premium adjustments in India can influence Asian physical flows and arbitrage opportunities.

• Global gold prices remain anchored by central bank accumulation, real rates, and macro uncertainty, with local discounts offering tactical entry points.

Strategic Overlay

Missed Opportunities (Where Markets Are Complacent)

• Ignoring short-term regional price dislocations as tactical buying windows.

• Underestimating the role of India’s physical market in shaping Asian supply-demand signals.

Strategic Implications (If Executed Well)

• Hedging: Use discount periods to layer physical positions or secure futures coverage.

• Reserve Allocation: Consider Indian market flows when planning timing of bullion acquisitions.

• Portfolio Protection: Exploit temporary local inefficiencies without compromising structural allocation.

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